Railroad's Weekly Performance

For those interested in knowing how their favorite major is doing, I receive weekly updates. If I can remember, I will be sure to post updates. This report is generated by Credit Suisse.

Data on the Go - Week 4 Railroad Data

Industry Volumes: Carload volumes of ~641k, were up 1.4% on a y/y basis. Weather permitting; we anticipate that absolute volumes will tick-up to more normal levels over the next several weeks. One area for angst has been the
persistent weakness in coal volumes through the first four weeks of 1Q12 for both CSX and NSC (which has been brought about by mild weather and low natural gas prices). QTD, CSX coal volumes are down 12.7% and NSC coal volumes are
down 10.6%. While the announcement by Patriot Coal yesterday to idle one of its CSX served mines was relatively small, the Company’s "view that the domestic thermal coal market is likely to remain depressed for an extended period" was concerning to us.

Sequential Trends: Carloads grew 2.7% sequentially during the week. The sequential uptick was expected given that the MLK holiday fell during Week 3.

1Q12 Volume Trends vs. CS Estimates:
o CNI volumes are +0.2%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +5.2%
o CP volumes are +6.1%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +3.9%
o CSX volumes are +1.3%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +2.9%
o KSU volumes are +7.2%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +6.9%
o NSC volumes are -2.0%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +3.2%
o UNP volumes are 1.0%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +2.2%

CS Composite Score Ranking: For 1Q12, CP earned the top spot in our Composite Volume and Service Score Ranking while NSC took the bottom slot in our ranking. The strength at CP can be attributed to easy service comps on a y/y basis as well as a surge in coal volumes (+64%) on a QTD basis.

Please note that at the beginning of each quarter, the volumes comparison relative to our estimates and the Composite Score ranking can change considerably.

Some additional railroad financial news...

Caterpillar Inc has decided to close its Electro-Motive locomotive plant in London, Ontario, and lay off at least 450 workers following several months of unsuccessful contract negotiations with the Canadian Auto Workers union.

Peoria, Illinois-based Caterpillar said on Friday the closing is taking place because the cost structure of the operation is not sustainable. A contract with Electro-Motive Canada workers in London expired Dec. 31, and Caterpillar had been looking for wage and benefit concessions from the CAW.

Electo-Motive was acquired by Caterpillar for $820 million in 2010 and is a part of its Alabama-based Progress Rail Services unit, which competes with General Electric Co and Bombardier Inc . Workers at the London plant have been locked out of the plant since the beginning of 2012 due to the contract dispute.

'REGRETTABLE,' BUT NECESSARY

"It is regrettable that it has become necessary to close production operations at the London facility," Caterpillar said in a news release. "Progress Rail's global manufacturing network assures its customers that delivery schedules will not be impacted by this decision."

Electro-Motive makes diesel-electric locomotives, and has facilities in Mexico and Illinois, in addition to London.

Caterpillar/Progress Rail has opened a new facility in Muncie IN. It began production in October.

Data on the Go - Week 6 Railroad Data, Keeping Score

Industry Volumes: Carload volumes of ~637k, were up 2.8% on a y/y basis. On a sequential basis, carloads fell 1.3% during the week. As a point of reference, industry volumes have historically fallen by 3% from Q4 to Q1.

QTD Trends: On a QTD basis, volumes are up 3.1%. On a commodity-type basis, ag and coal are down 4.1% and 1.5%, respectively. And while the weakness in coal has generated a fair amount of angst recently in the investment community, we would note that there has been considerable strength in motor vehicle (+19.9%) and metallic ores (+13.1%), as well as increases in intermodal (+4.1%). These increases have been more than enough to offset the aforementioned weakness in coal and ag, from a volume perspective.

Service Metrics: Broadly speaking, the Class I rails are seeing improvements on a y/y basis in both faster train speed and reduced terminal dwell. Cars on line is more of a mixed bag thus far in 1Q12 versus 1Q11. Part of the favorable service comps can be attributed to better weather this year compared to last. Alternatively, the more mild winter has also translated into weaker coal demand, particularly from the Eastern rails.

1Q12 Volume Trends vs. CS Estimates:
o CNI volumes are +4.0%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +5.2%
o CP volumes are +7.9%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +3.9%
o CSX volumes are +2.9%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +2.9%
o KSU volumes are +9.9%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +6.9%
o NSC volumes are +0.4%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +3.2%
o UNP volumes are +2.3%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +2.2%

CS Composite Score Ranking: For 1Q12, CP earned the top spot in our Composite Volume and Service Score Ranking while NSC took the bottom slot in our ranking. The strength at CP can be attributed to easy service comps on a y/y basis as well as a surge in coal volumes (+55%) on a QTD basis.

Data on the Go: Week 9 Railroad Data, Keeping Score

Industry Volumes: Carload volumes of ~633k, were up 0.5% on a y/y basis. Excluding the 15% decline in coal carloads, industry volumes were up 5.1% on a y/y basis.

Sequential Trends: Carloads grew 2.4% sequentially during the week. The sequential uptick was a welcomed change from the previous three weeks of consecutive carload declines.

QTD Trends: On a QTD basis, industry volumes are up 1.5% (down slightly from the +1.6% through Week 8). Excluding coal volumes, industry volumes are up 3.5% (coal volumes are down 5.5% through Week 9). When focusing on industrial-oriented carload types (which exclude ag, coal and intermodal), U.S. carload volumes are up over 8% on a QTD basis; when focusing on only ag, coal and intermodal, U.S. carload volumes are down 2% on a QTD basis. Overall, U.S. carloads are up 0.3% QTD.

1Q12 Volume Trends vs. Credit Suisse Estimates:

1Q12 Volume Trends vs. Credit Suisse Estimates:
CNI volumes are +3.8%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +5.2%
CP volumes are +7.3%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +3.9%
CSX volumes are +0.6%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +1.2%
KSU volumes are +7.9%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +6.9%
NSC volumes are -0.6%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of -0.3%
UNP volumes are +0.4%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +0.5%

Credit Suisse Composite Score Ranking: For 1Q12, CP earned the top spot in our Composite Volume and Service Score Ranking while CSX took the bottom slot in our ranking.

Data on the Go - Week 10 Railroad Data, Keeping Score

Industry Volumes: Carload volumes of ~629k, were up 0.9% on a y/y basis. Excluding the 11% decline in coal carloads, industry volumes were up 4.3% on a y/y basis.

Sequential Trends: Carloads declined by 0.7% sequentially during the week. In the last five weeks, total industry volumes have only increased sequentially on one occasion.

QTD Trends: On a QTD basis, industry volumes are up 1.4% (down slightly from the +1.5% through Week 9). Excluding coal volumes, industry volumes are up 3.6% (coal volumes are down 6.0% through Week 10). When focusing on industrialoriented carload types (which exclude ag, coal and intermodal), U.S. carload volumes are up nearly 8% on a QTD basis; when focusing on only ag, coal and intermodal, U.S. carload volumes are down 2.0% on a QTD basis. Overall, U.S. carloads are up 0.2% QTD.

1Q12 Volume Trends vs. CS Estimates:
CNI volumes are +3.6%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +5.2%
CP volumes are +8.2%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +3.9%
CSX volumes are +0.6%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +1.2%
KSU volumes are +6.9%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +6.9%
NSC volumes are -0.7%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of -0.3%
UNP volumes are +0.3%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +0.5%

CS Composite Score Ranking: For 1Q12, CP currently holds the top spot in our Composite Volume and Service Score Ranking while CSX is in the bottom slot in our ranking.

Data on the Go - Week 12 Railroad Data, Keeping Score

Industry Volumes: Carload volumes of ~640k, were down 1.1% on a y/y basis. Excluding the 17% decline in coal carloads, industry volumes were up 3.4% on a y/y basis. Absolute carload volumes are at the highest point since the first week in February. Carloads increased by 1.7% sequentially during the week.

QTD Trends: On a QTD basis, industry volumes are up 1.0%. Excluding coal, industry volumes are up 3.4% (coal carloads are down 7.6% through Week 12). When focusing on industrial-oriented carload types (which exclude ag, coal and intermodal), U.S. volumes are up nearly 7.3% on a QTD basis; when focusing on only ag, coal and intermodal, U.S. volumes are down 2.4% on a QTD basis. Overall, U.S. carloads are down 0.2% QTD.

Coal Trends: On an absolute basis, Eastern coal volumes appear to have at least temporarily found a support level. The same cannot be said for UP, which experienced a 25% y/y decline and 10% sequential decline in coal volumes during the week. Week 12 marked the lowest absolute coal volumes for UP in 2012. On a QTD basis, UP coal carloads are down 8.6%, which is weaker than the revised guidance of down 7% (initial guidance was for coal volumes to be down 5% for Q1).

1Q12 Volume Trends vs. CS Estimates:
* CNI volumes are +3.4%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +5.2%
* CP volumes are +7.0%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +3.9%
* CSX volumes are +0.5%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +1.2%
* KSU volumes are +5.6%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +6.9%
* NSC volumes are -0.9%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of -0.3%
* UNP volumes are -0.2%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +0.5%

Data on the Go - Week 13 Railroad Data, Keeping Score

Industry Volumes: Carload volumes of ~662k, were down 0.6% on a y/y basis. For the week, coal volumes were down 19%. Excluding coal carloads, industry volumes were up 4.5% on a y/y basis. Absolute carload volumes during the week were the highest on a YTD basis. Carloads increased by 3.4% sequentially during the week.

QTD Trends: On a QTD basis, industry volumes are up 0.8%. Excluding coal, industry volumes are up 3.5% (coal carloads are down 8.6% through Week 13). When focusing on industrial-oriented carload types (which exclude ag, coal and intermodal), U.S. volumes are up 7.2% on a QTD basis; when focusing on only ag, coal and intermodal, U.S. volumes are down 2.6% on a QTD basis. Overall, U.S. carloads are down 0.4% QTD.

Service Metrics: Each rail posted y/y improvements in train speed and KSU was the only rail to post an increase in terminal dwell. The performance on cars online was mixed with the Eastern rails posting declines along with CP and BN. Alternatively, KSU and CN posted increases in cars online.

1Q12 Volume Trends vs. CS Estimates:
* CNI volumes are +3.5%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +5.2%
* CP volumes are +6.6%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +3.9%
* CSX volumes are +0.4%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +1.2%
* KSU volumes are +5.4%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +6.9%
* NSC volumes are -0.8%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of -0.3%
* UNP volumes are -0.5%, vs. our 1Q12 estimate of +0.5%

CS Composite Score Ranking: For 1Q12, CP earned the top spot in our Composite Volume and Service Score Ranking while CSX is in the bottom slot in our ranking.

Data on the Go - Week 17 Railroad Data, Keeping Score

Industry Volumes: Carload volumes of ~660k, were up 1.0% on a y/y basis; on a trailing four-week basis, industry volumes are down 0.1%. For the week, the y/y comp likely benefited from Easter, which fell during Week 17 in 2011. On an absolute basis, carloads were the second highest on a year-to-date basis this week. Sequentially, industry carload volumes increased by a modest 0.3%; this marked the third consecutive week of sequential volume growth.

Favorable Industrial Oriented Carload Trends: At the industry level, industrial oriented carloads, which exclude coal, ag and intermodal carload types, increased 7.3% y/y on a trailing four week basis. Interestingly, the growth in this carload commodity basket has accelerated nearly every week since Week 10 of this year. In the U.S., this commodity carload basket was up 7.6% on a trailing four week basis. Separately, U.S. economically sensitive carload volumes (IM, coal and Ag), are down 4.4% on a trailing four-week basis, which is effectively unchanged over the last seven weeks.

Coal Trends: Below is a snapshot of the trailing four-week coal comps (on a y/y basis) compared to what each rail posted during 1Q12 (based on AAR volumes):

* CNI: -16.7% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -12.2% in 1Q12
* CP: -1.3% on a trailing four-week basis vs. +27.5% in 1Q12
* CSX: -18.7% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -16.3% in 1Q12
* KSU: -36.2% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -12.1% in 1Q12
* NSC: -10.5% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -13.9% in 1Q12
* UNP: -21.2% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -9.4% in 1Q12

Credit Suisse Composite Score Ranking: So far in 2Q12, CP earned the top spot in our Composite Volume and Service Score Ranking while CSX is in the bottom slot in our ranking.

Data on the Go - Week 21 Railroad Data, Keeping Score

Industry Volumes: Carload volumes of ~645k were flat on a y/y basis; on a trailing four-week basis, volumes are up 0.4%. Sequentially, industry volumes fell by 1.7% during the week.

Memorial Day: Looking to next week, investors should anticipate a sequential decline in carloads as a result of Memorial Day. From 2005 through 2011, carloads have fallen by about 7% on average during the week in which Memorial Day occurred. The y/y comp is clean as Memorial Day also fell during Week 22 in 2011.

Solid Carload Growth Ex-Coal & Ag: If we exclude coal and agricultural products, industry volumes are up ~5% year-overyear on a trailing four-week basis. The underlying strength is driven by chemicals (+8%), motor vehicles (+24%), nonmetallic minerals (+5%), and intermodal (+3%).

Coal Trending in the Right Direction: During the week, coal volumes at the industry level reached the highest level on an absolute basis since Week 10. Volumes were down just 6.1% for the week, which is the smallest y/y decline since Week 6. On a rolling four-week average basis, coal carloads are down less than 11%; this trend has improved every week since bottoming at down 17% during Week 16. So while coal is still down on a y/y basis, the trend is favorable.


CP Strike: The CP strike can clearly be seen in this week's volumes. In total, CP volumes were down 48% compared to 2011. Intermodal was the commodity carload type hit the hardest, with volumes down 63%. QTD volumes are now up just 0.9% through Week 21; last week QTD volumes were up 7.7%.

2Q12 QTD Carloads vs. CS Estimates (y/y % change):

*CNI: +4.5% (QTD actual) vs. +4.6% (Credit Suisse est.)
*CP: +0.9% (QTD actual) vs. +5.3% (Credit Suisse est.)
*CSX: -0.3% (QTD actual) vs. +0.4% (Credit Suisse est.)
*KSU: +1.5% (QTD actual) vs. +6.5% (Credit Suisse est.)
*NSC: +0.9% (QTD actual) vs. +0.7% (Credit Suisse est.)
*UNP: -0.9% (QTD actual) vs. -0.1% (Credit Suisse est.)

Coal Trends: Below is a snapshot of the trailing four-week coal comps (on a y/y basis) compared to what each rail posted during 1Q12 (based on AAR volumes):

*CNI: -7.9% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -12.2% in 1Q12
*CP -0.1% on a trailing four-week basis vs. +27.5% in 1Q12
*CSX: -19.4% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -16.3% in 1Q12
*KSU: -33.4% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -12.1% in 1Q12
*NSC -12.6% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -13.9% in 1Q12
*UNP: -17.9% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -9.4% in 1Q12

Credit Suisse Composite Score Ranking: So far in 2Q12, CP earned the top spot in our Composite Volume and Service Score Ranking while CSX is in the bottom slot in our ranking.

Data on the Go – Week 25 Railroad Data, Keeping Score

Industry Volumes: Carload volumes of ~664k were up 3.8% y/y basis; on a cumulative four-week basis, volumes are up 1.5%. Week 25 carload volumes were the third highest on a YTD basis. Interestingly, the past three weeks have produced the top three carload counts on a YTD basis. Sequentially, industry volumes contracted by just 0.5%.

Coal Volumes: Coal volumes were up 1.0% on a y/y basis, which marks the first time since the second week of the year that volumes have grown year-over-year. On a rolling four-week basis, coal volumes were down 6% y/y. The 6% decline during the week is a notable improvement from the 17% decline during Week 16. Of note, KSU coal volumes increased 45% on a y/y basis and were the second highest on a QTD basis during the week (June 29, 2012). It appears that a major customer has started to take shipments over the past several weeks.

Solid Carload Growth Ex-Coal & Ag: If we exclude coal and agricultural products, industry volumes are up 4.4% year-overyear on a trailing four-week basis. The underlying strength is driven by chemicals (+9%), motor vehicles (+20%), and intermodal (+5%).

2Q12 QTD Carloads vs. Credit Suisse Estimates (y/y % change):

* CNI: +4.4% (QTD actual) vs. +4.6% (Credit Suisse est.)
* CP: -0.2% (QTD actual) vs. +5.3% (Credit Suisse est.)
* CSX: +0.1% (QTD actual) vs. +0.4% (Credit Suisse est.)
* KSU: +3.0% (QTD actual) vs. +2.0% (Credit Suisse est.)
* NSC: +0.7% (QTD actual) vs. +0.7% (Credit Suisse est.)
* UNP: +0.2% (QTD actual) vs. -0.1% (Credit Suisse est.)

Coal Trends: Below is a snapshot of the trailing 4-wk y/y coal comps compared to what each rail posted during 1Q12 (based on AAR volumes):

* CNI: +0.4% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -12.2% in 1Q12
* CP: -2.6% on a trailing four-week basis vs. +27.5% in 1Q12
* CSX: -9.7% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -16.3% in 1Q12
* KSU: +9.0% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -12.1% in 1Q12
* NSC -10.6% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -13.9% in 1Q12
* UNP: -15.0% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -9.4% in 1Q12

Credit Suisse Composite Score Ranking: So far in 2Q12, CP earned the top spot in our Composite Volume & Service Score Ranking while CSX is in the bottom slot in our ranking.

Data on the Go - Week 27 Railroad Data, Keeping Score

Industry Volumes: Carload volumes of ~569k were up 2.0% y/y basis; on a cumulative four-week basis, volumes are up 2.5%. Auto volumes were up nearly 50% on a y/y basis as there were fewer plant shutdowns during the week of July 4 this year relative to last year. Sequentially, industry volumes fell by about 14.4% during the July 4 week which is a little steeper than the historical average decline of ~13% going back to 2004.

Coal Volumes: For the week, coal volumes were down just 1.0% on a y/y basis. On a rolling four-week basis, coal volumes were down 3.5% y/y. As a reference point, industry coal volumes were down 10.6% for 2Q12 and rolling four week volumes were down 4.5%.

Solid Carload Growth Ex-Coal & Ag: When excluding coal and agricultural products, industry volumes are up 4.9% year over-year on a trailing four-week basis; given that it is the first week of Q3, it is not meaningful to review the QTD trends.

During 2Q12, carload volumes ex-coal and ag were up 5.1% and were driven by strength in chemicals (+8.5%), motor vehicles (+20.6%), and intermodal (+4.7%).

* CNI: +1.8% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -4.5% in 2Q12
* CP: +14.6% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -0.3% in 2Q12
* CSX: -14.8% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -16.6% in 2Q12
* KSU: +18.8% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -18.1% in 2Q12
* NSC:-11.1% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -11.4% in 2Q12
* UNP: -11.6% on a trailing four-week basis vs. -16.5% in 2Q12

Credit Suisse Composite Score Ranking: On a QTD basis in 3Q12, BNI earned the top spot in our Composite Volume & Service Score Ranking while CSX is in the bottom slot in our ranking. We would note that the rankings could fluctuate considerable during the first few weeks of every new quarter.

NYC acquires final section for High Line

New York City has acquired the third and final section of the High Line, an elevated stretch of historic freight rail line that's been converted to a public park.

Mayor Michael "Nanny" Bloomberg and City Council Speaker Christine Quinn said Monday that CSX Corp.'s CSX Transportation unit donated the rail yards section to the city.

The ownership transfer clears the way for construction of the final stretch of the High Line. It'll wrap around the planned Hudson Rail Yards between West 30th and 34th streets.

The Hudson Yards will be developed on the current site of the LIRR storage yard. It'll feature more than 12 million square feet of new office, residential, retail and cultural space _ and 14 acres of public space.

Data on the Go - Week 33 Railroad Data, Keeping Score

Industry Volumes: Carload volumes of ~672k were up a modest 0.5% y/y basis; on a cumulative four-week basis, volumes were up 1.3%. Sequentially, industry volumes expanded by 2.4%. Despite the modest y/y gain in carloads, what we found to be most encouraging was that, on an absolute basis, carload volumes were the highest on a YTD during the week (August 24, 2012).

Coal Volumes: For the week, coal volumes were down 8.6% on a y/y basis. On a rolling four-week basis, coal volumes were down 5.7% y/y. Coal volume y/y changes, at both the NA and U.S. levels, have deteriorated on a rolling four week basis each of the three weeks.

Not Seeing a Shift In Intermodal Volumes: One interesting dynamic to watch for in the coming weeks is the potential benefit for the Western rails stemming from the ILA labor strike threat. We are not seeing this shift happen yet (judging by y/y change in West Coast intermodal volumes vs. East Coast intermodal volumes), but it is worth keeping on the radar heading into peak shipping season.

Solid Carload Growth Ex-Coal & Ag: When excluding coal and agricultural products, industry volumes were up 3.9% year over-year on a trailing four-week basis, which is a slight downtick from the 4.0% growth rate posted last week. The strength during the quarter is coming from growth in motor vehicles (+18.7%), chemicals (+8.3%) and intermodal (+4.9%).

Credit Suisse Composite Score Ranking: BNI earned the top spot in our Composite Volume and Service Score Ranking while CSX is in the bottom slot in our ranking.

Week 39: Railroad Volume and Service Metrics Summary Data Sheet

Industry Volumes: Carload volumes of ~690k were down 0.8% y/y basis; on a cumulative four-week basis, volumes were up 0.1%. Sequentially, industry volumes expanded by 1.4%. The absolute carload volumes during the week were the highest on a YTD basis. A YTD high volume count has been established during each of the last three weeks. While volumes were down on a y/y basis, the prior year comp marked the highest carload count during all of 2011. We remained impressed that despite the notably weak coal carload volumes, 2012 volumes can still "hold their own" versus 2011 volumes. In fact, compared to last year, Week 39 volumes were down 16.5%, yet absolute carload volumes were down less than 1%.

Coal Volumes: For the week, coal volumes were down 16.5% on a y/y basis. On a rolling four-week basis, coal volumes were down 11.5% y/y. While the coal volume declines have moderated relative to earlier this year, the y/y change in coal volume declines have progressively worsened each of the last nine weeks; the trend is clearly not favorable. The 2011 comps get difficult for the next several weeks before a period of easing.

Carload Growth Ex-Coal & Ag: When excluding coal and agricultural products, U.S. carload volumes were up 3.2% year over-year on a trailing four-week basis, which is marginally lower than where this metric has been trending in recent weeks. So, despite modest gains in U.S. carload growth (+0.1% on a trailing four-week basis), when we strip out several "unique" carload categories, the underlying demand trends remain favorable.

3Q12 Carloads vs. Credit Suisse Estimates (y/y % change):

* CNI: +2.9% vs. +2.8% (Credit Suisse est.)
* CP: +2.8% vs. +2.8% (Credit Suisse est.)
* CSX: -0.8% vs. -0.7% (Credit Suisse est.)
* KSU: +6.8% vs. +7.7% (Credit Suisse est.)
* NSC: -1.4% vs. -1.0% (Credit Suisse est.)
* UNP: +0.2% vs. +0.4% (Credit Suisse est.)

Credit Suisse Composite Score Ranking: BNI earned the top spot in our Composite Volume and Service Score Ranking while CSX is in the bottom slot in our ranking.

Data on the Go - Week 43 Railroad Data, Keeping Score

Industry Volumes: Carload volumes of ~677k were down 1.1% y/y basis; on a cumulative four-week basis, volumes were down 1.0%. Sequentially, industry volumes expanded by 0.4%, which is the second consecutive week of sequential
increases.

Coal Volumes: For the week, coal volumes were down 14.1% on a y/y basis. On a rolling four-week basis, coal volumes were down 15.4% y/y. While the rolling-four week decline is steep, it is a slight improvement from the prior week's decline of 16.0%. Furthermore, the slight moderation in rolling coal declines also marked the end of 14 consecutive weeks of worsening y/y coal declines. Even though the U.S. Class I rails offered little hope for 4Q12, we were encouraged to see a slight moderation in the declines nonetheless.

Carload Growth Ex-Coal & Ag: When excluding coal and agricultural products, U.S. carload volumes were up 3.5% year over-year on a trailing four-week basis, which is in-line with where this metric has been trending in recent weeks. So, despite low single digit declines in aggregate U.S. carload declines (nearly a 2% decline on a trailing four-week basis), when we strip out several "unique" carload categories, the underlying demand trends remain favorable.

4Q12 QTD Carloads vs. Credit Suisse Estimates (y/y % change):

* CNI: +2.7% (QTD actual) vs. +2.0% (Credit Suisse est.)
* CP: +1.3% (QTD actual) vs. +2.1% (Credit Suisse est.)
* CSX: -3.0% (QTD actual) vs. -2.7% (Credit Suisse est.)
* KSU: +3.6% (QTD actual) vs. +6.7% (Credit Suisse est.)
* NSC: -2.5% (QTD actual) vs. -2.4% (Credit Suisse est.)
* UNP: -1.5% (QTD actual) vs. -0.6% (Credit Suisse est.)

Credit Suisse Composite Score Ranking: BNI earned the top spot in our Composite Volume and Service Score Ranking while CSX is in the bottom slot in our ranking.

Data on the Go - Week 5 Railroad Data, Keeping Score

Industry Volumes: Carload volumes of ~649k were up 0.5% on a y/y basis, which was better than the prior week's decline of 1.3% y/y. The MLK holiday occurred during Week 4 of this year, but during Week 3 of 2012, thus the y/y decline last week was not clean. On a rolling-four week basis, industry volumes are up 1.4% versus 2012.

Sequential Expansion during Week 5: Carloads expanded by 260 bps equentially during the week. The sequential increase can be attributed to the MLK holiday.

Coal Volumes: Industry coal volumes were down ~8% during the week. On a rolling four-week basis, industry volumes were down about 15%. When examining prior year trends, industry coal volumes were on a steady downward trend through Week 16 of 2012. As such, the comps should be less difficult for the next two months.

Carload Growth Ex-Coal & Ag: When excluding coal and ag volumes, U.S. carload volumes were up more than 6% year-over-year on a trailing four-week basis. This represents the highest absolute carload count since late-October 2012.

1Q13 QTD Carloads vs. Credit Suisse estimates (y/y % change):

CNI: +4.0% (QTD actual) vs. +3.1% (Credit Suisse est.)
CP: +1.4% (QTD actual) vs. +1.8% (Credit Suisse est.)
CSX: -3.9% (QTD actual) vs. -2.6% (Credit Suisse est.)
KSU: -0.2% (QTD actual) vs. +2.1% (Credit Suisse est.)
NSC: +2.8% (QTD actual) vs. +2.1% (Credit Suisse est.)
UNP: -3.7% (QTD actual) vs. -2.0% (Credit Suisse est.)

Credit Suisse Composite Score Ranking: CNI earned the top spot in our Composite Volume and Service Score Ranking while CSX is in the bottom slot in our ranking.

Alex, you skip couple months of reporting.

shamoo737 wrote: Alex, you skip couple months of reporting.

John... I did so on purpose, as to not disappoint you. Per Credit Suisse... CSX usually rates in last place.